Tuesday, July 17, 2007

I have a post

But it might offend people, so I am reviewing it before posting. If this one is too much, I'll just write about the less offensive half.

In the meantime!

This is a cool article because it talks about using age to determine how much longer something will last -- the idea that a company that's been around for fifty years will probably be around for fifty more, but most new startups crash. According to that logic, the human race has between 5,100 and 7.8 million years left to go -- with a 95% confidence level. That flies in the face, I guess, of all those people who are rooting for the apocalypse in the next six months. Of course, there is always that 5% chance.

[EDIT: The aforementioned post is below.]

9 comments:

Ryan said...

I think you should post. That's my thought.

Duff said...

Usually whether an opinion is offensive or not is the tone: if one is snide and has uncontrolled hatred towards the other side, it is offensive. Otherwise, if one is civil, the opinion may just be "disagreeable." Har har har!

Elizabeth said...

Taking it into consideration. Editing.

Ryan said...

Also, questions of usefulness of this kind of prediction aside: how can we assume that now is the right time to make the prediction for time, when we assume there's nothing special about our particular vantage point? how can it necessarily compare favorably to the same predictions made on the same methodologies, but made 5 years ago, 20 years ago, 50 years from now, in the first year of the thing's existence? (in the last case, sure, we were often proven wrong, but there was no reason to assume we would be!)

Ryan said...

also: biologists could learn a lot from this guy, noodleberry.

Elizabeth said...

I think that the 'copernican method' is only really valid when there is no other information. What you're assuming is, in fact, simply that you aren't at the very beginning or the very end of a process. As soon as you know just about anything else about the average duration, you can make different assumptions.

ALSO, I have heard about that guy. He is crazy.

Ryan said...

His photo will confirm that statement.

Ryan said...

The title of this post has not been true for some time!

Elizabeth said...

You don't know that - maybe I have another post sitting around somewhere.

Or maybe I have been distracted by Harry Potter and work.